Why We Love Predictions So Much & 3 of Mine

Have you had enough of the look-backs at 2010 and the predictions for 2011? Apparently, most people haven’t, which is just as well, judging by the number of blogs and articles hitting my RSS feeds, Google Alerts and email box. Why do we love predictions so much?

Humans are unique in the animal world in that we can detect and make meaning from complex patterns all around us that result in decisions about how we should behave, think, live our lives and so on. Predictions – our own and others’ – are aggregates of these patterns so we find them confirming or interesting or sometimes just weird but we pay attention to them.

We have a strong need to exercise individual control, some of which is cultural and some of which is human. Getting a handle on the possibilities for the future, gives us a sense of mastery, self-esteem and even optimism. We tuck these predictions away in our memory banks and they become part of our pattern recognition process.

According to Dr. Shelley E. Taylor, a professor of Health Psychology at UCLA, “positive illusions” about the future are mentally and physically healthy; they improve the ability to care for and about other people and they increase the capacity for creative and productive work.

As predictions seem to be so important to our general well being, I’ll offer three of mine for the business environment:

• CEO’s will be more open to experimentation at work BUT these experiments will be verified by analytics. Managing risk is still hugely important in this fragile economy. Trust but verify.

• Social capital will become a key hiring criteria for positions that influence business performance. The quality of a person’s relationships will become as important as her experience and skill set.

• Customers will be more quixotic than ever and companies will make even larger technology investments to try to predict their moods, behaviors and buying intentions. Whether these investments pay off will depend upon:
• Business Strategy
• Organizational Culture
• Quality of Leadership
• Employee Fit
• The Right Data, Metrics and Analytics

As a recent blog from IBM stated, there is no ROI from Business Intelligence unless someone uses it to make decisions.

Happy New Year and let’s get 2011 started!!

What are some of your predictions for 2011?

Too Loyal to Fail: 4 Ways to Inspire Customers

Ray's Candy Store stands on the corner of Avenue A and Seventh Street in New York City. It's an all night slice of life on the east side of Greenwich Village that for the past 37 years has delivered all kinds of food 24/7 -- essential if you've ever lived in Manhattan.

For the past few weeks, customers have been helping out at the store, running deliveries and staging two fund-raisers to help the owner, Ray Alvarez, pay overdue bills. Other customers are helping to sort out an insurance issue by providing the labor to install a necessary piece of equipment so he can continue to provide his Belgian fries, a staple of his operation.

Ray Alvarez has built up a huge store of social capital in his neighborhood. At a time when some businesses are "too big to fail", others struggle to survive. Businesses of all sizes should stake stock of their own stores of social capital if they are going to enjoy the kind of customer loyalty today that will fuel growth. Ray Alvarez's tale holds lessons for all of us who run a business, no matter what size it is.

Know Your Customers (And Let Them Know You): Nothing makes us buy more and tell people about it than companies who make us feel special. When people feel a business knows them, it creates an important emotional connection. Customers buy from companies they've researched (so feel they know), have heard about or have experienced. How are you connecting with customers? Are they part of a larger community you've created for them? Are you using social media to be part of a networked customer base? It's much more than slotting buyers into marketing segments.

Give Customers an Experience They Can't Get Anywhere Else: What experience do your customers expect from you? Does your culture support an experience your customers deserve? Ray's delivers any time of the day or night and has created an oasis of old New York in a neighborhood taken over by expensive wine bars and chain coffee shops.

Customers' Memories Are Long; Don't Forget It! The adults who now are rallying to preserve Ray's Candy Store were the children and teenagers who remembered getting a break from the owner when they didn't have the money to pay for their orders. What memories of your company do you create for your customers?

Don't Squander Your Social Capital: Over the years, Ray has employed people from the neighborhood and they've stayed for decades. His customers describe his store as "an icon of our childhood" and think of him as a friend. Even Ray's landlord, who could have attracted another trendy retail outlet to his building, is working with his tenant to ensure that the store remains part of the fabric of the neighborhood.

Social capital is a currency that is easily devalued by the memory of poor experiences and a sense of buying from a company that acts too big to care.

How are you creating memories, networks and connections for your customers? Do you really know them? Do they really know you?